US inflation is moderating because the US labour market is cooling benignly.

But delayed effects of US monetary policy to kick in and household savings running down.

Expect mild US recession in 2024 (but soft landing also possible).

In China, weak household consumption due to consumers not tapping into excess savings and a beleaguered real estate sector are weighing on growth

But Chinese policy is supportive, and we believe we will see the benefits. We don’t subscribe to the more pessimistic ‘Japanification’ assessment of the country’s long-term outlook.

There’s great uncertainty, posing upside and downside risks to China.