Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, looks ahead to a year
of important elections – when voters in countries representing some 40% of the world's population go to the polls.
Key Points:
- In the US presidential election, it’s looking increasing likely that it will be another close race between President Joe Biden and ex-president, Donald Trump. Both candidates are pushing for a continuation of their first-term policies.
- For Trump, that means a tariff-focused trade policy, as well as a foreign policy that’s sceptical of multilateral institutions. He may also push for the renewal, and possible deepening, of his 2017 tax cuts. For Biden, it means extensions to social security policies, as well as a coalition of allies to ‘de-risk’ supply chains and invigorate green industrial production.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely win a third term in India’s general election. This will mean political stability, a priority on infrastructure and a boost for manufacturing. The big question will be the size of Modi’s majority in the legislature as this will affect his ability to secure unpopular labour and land reforms.
- In the UK, we’re expecting a general election around October-November in which the opposition Labour Party will likely triumph. That said, the size of its majority in Parliament will be smaller than what the opinion polls are suggesting.
- A Labour government in the UK will likely prioritise spending on industrial projects and encourage reforms to attract private-sector investment. However, it will find its ambitions constrained by tight finances.